Driving the Future
Environmental activists are declaring war on CO2 spewing gas hogs. Christian groups are asking “what would Jesus drive?” and media savvy Hollywood rabble rousers are creating PSA's that spoof anti-drug ads and equate driving SUV's with coddling terrorists.
Detroit's besieged automakers have circled the wagons counseling patience while they develop futuristic products. In the meantime, they defend their current line up as being a response to what the public wants. It's clear Americans do love their SUV's as they turn in record numbers from cars to trucks and SUV's. Automakers are placing their bets on selling more of these powerful andd profitable vehicles while researching various alternatives.
Are there any sane viable choices? Is there a way to achieve energy independence, stop global warming and drive whatever car you please? We will examine the most promising alternative propulsion options and try to close the divide between promise and peril, innovation and inertia.
It was historical synergy that brought cars and gasoline together but there have always been alternative fuel vehicles. The earliest cars were steam powered. Of course, the occasional explosion occurred when too much pressure built up in the boiler.
Around the turn of the 20th century, electricity vied with gasoline as the chief power choice for cars. Even Henry Ford’s wife drove one. They were clean, offered push button starting versus a crank and were quiet. Everything a loud, smoke billowing gasoline powered car wasn't. Unfortunately, they didn't have much range and needed to be charged overnight.
Hybrid gasoline and electric motors, like the one found in today's Toyota Prius, have been around for more than 100 years. It was none other than Ferdinand Porsche (the designer of the Porsche) who developed the first hybrid in 1900. And it was front-wheel drive as well.
We can't overlook some of the more over-the-top notions about how to make cars go -- from jet like turbine engines to proposals for atomic-powered cars in the 1950’s. Luckily cooler heads prevailed and pursuit of the latter option was shelved when it was realized that a meltdown on the freeway could tie up traffic for several hundred thousand years.
Today's manufacturers are divided on the right approach.
Gasoline Do nothing.
Ethanol
Methanol
Electrics
Hybrids
Diesel
Hydrogen
Fuel cells
One thing is clear, they've all pulled the plug on the hopes of those promoting the future of electric cars. One hundred years ago, Clara Ford's Baker Electric car had about a forty-mile range and needed to be charged overnight. Years and billions of development dollars later today's General Motors electric EV-1’s can go about the same distance and need to be charged overnight. All of these GM experimental vehicles are being called back by the manufacturer to be crushed and forgotten. This is sure to spell the end of the serious pursuit of the electric option unless it's revived by someone who can solve the technical hurdles.
Other choices are being tried. Celebrities like Cameron Diaz, Leonardo DiCaprio and Seinfeld creator Larry David have joined about 35,000 other consumers who've chosen to buy small, lightweight gas and electric hybrids powered cars from Toyota and Honda. These compacts get astounding gas mileage, 30 to 50 miles per gallon in some cases but they don't offer much size or luxury. Their buyers seem to believe it's better to be "green" than to be surrounded by luxury. For those who want to go "green" but not give up their SUV, Lexus is introducing the RX300 hybrid SUV with both muscle and mileage. Ford is not far behind with a hybrid version of their Escape and GM has more full-sized vehicles in its product pipeline.
In Europe, where gas is $5 a gallon, forty percent of cars run on diesel, but U.S. oil and trucking companies resist reformulating diesel to a low-sulfur mix so there is no price incentive or pollution penalty for Americans to switch.
The Bush administration and Detroit are touting hydrogen fuel cells as the distant hope of the future.
BMW and Ford have explored the direct hydrogen (H2ICE) path and we will tour the world with a fleet of BMW 700 series hydrogen cars and show the unveiling of Ford model U which their chairman proclaims as the 21st century’s model T. A hydrogen hybrid mix is also promising since there is the potential for perpetual motion with the hydrogen-fueled engine generating the electricity for both the drive and an electrolysis machine that makes hydrogen from water.
If the solutions are close at hand, why is it taking so long? Most auto-manufacturers claim it takes time to test, develop and develop consumer support. Their critics charge they are dragging their heels. Spurious conspiracy stories of the 100 m.p.g. carburetor hidden in the GM basement notwithstanding there is a history of Detroit crying wolf. The carmakers repeatedly resisted installing seatbelts, catalytic converters and air bags. They testified that it would be impossible to meet government mandated fuel economy and emission targets. They did and the air across the country improved.
We will look into the impact of California’s laws, particularly the recent CO2 and alternative fuel mandates that Detroit and the White House are fighting in the courts.
What are the obstacles?
If we are in a chicken and egg situation, will it take a bold vision like JFK’s pledge to go to the moon and back in a decade? Alternatively, we will ask the chairman of BP (Beyond Petroleum) how the private sector can jump-start hydrogen infrastructure. But if the public don’t know choices exist, how do you create demand that spurs investment and innovation? Interestingly, next month GM is rolling out hydrogen vehicles for the US military who want to be free of energy dependence and a supply train where gas ends up at $400 a gallon on the battlefield.
If safe, clean, renewable, independent energy is possible, then the US could lead the world.
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